Soybean yields upgraded in November

This week's FarmLead looks at soybean yields being upgraded in November.

Grain prices have been flopping a bit recently as the market is dealing with some currency moves, relatively decent harvest weather to finish up in Western Canada, and turning on the bushel number counter for corn and beans across the U.S. and Eastern Canada. Dry weather continues to be under the watchful eye of wheat traders, as the Black Sea, U.S. southern plains, and Australia are all experiencing warmer conditions, helping prices move up a bit on futures board this week. Eastern Australia is especially notable as the next few weeks and months don’t look very favourable for any additional additions to the production number estimates, especially on the eastern side of the Land Down Undaa.

Australian bank Macquarie says that the overall agricultural price sector (especially fertilizer prices) may still have more room to head lower though as “in order for markets to balance, prices will need to fall to levels that invoke supply cuts.” Specifically in soybeans, the downside risk remains relatively significant given large supplies coming off in the US, the large carryover from 2014/15, and what looks to be another monster crop in South America as seeded acreage is expected to go up with devalued currencies there. On that note, the Canadian Dollar continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, climbing back above 77 cents, as the closer we get to the Canadian election, investors are feeling better about any change in government, and subsequently, the strength of the Loonie. With a stronger Canadian Dollar, you can likely expect any strong basis levels you might have seen lately, start to pull back a bit.

The U.S.D.A.’s world agricultural supply and demand estimates came out on Friday, Oct. 9 but there weren’t too many surprises. Corn yields were seen at 168 bu/ac, bigger than the 167.1 bu/ac the market was expecting and the 167.5 bu/ac the U.S.D.A. pegged the crop at last month. As for soybeans, yields were raised by 0.1 from September to 47.2 bu/ac (in line with expectations) but the big kicker was the drop in harvested acreage of beans by 1.1 million acres. As for wheat, production is relatively unchanged but U.S. ending stocks came in at 861 million bushels (market was expecting 819 million bushels).

However, where production is still unknown is in Australia where more weather reports suggest smaller production potential. However, the U.S.D.A. surprised the market by actually upgrading their wheat output forecast by 1 million to 27 million tonnes (most other firms have things pegged somewhere between 24.5 25 million tonnes). Nonethless, world ending stocks also came in larger than expected at 228.5 million tonnes, a number that has nothing bullish about it today.

While the new report does reset some of the goalposts, more analysts are expecting that to come in the November report. Specifically, soybean yields have been upgraded in November by one full bushel or more in four of the last 10 years. In corn, yields have fallen by 1-2 bu/ac in that report in 7 of the last 9 years. Yes it’s another month away but it’s important to be cognitive of some of these types of numbers as we look to either hold or market grain in the next few months to come.

To growth,

Brennan Turner

President,

FarmLead.com

Brennan Turner is originally from Foam Lake, SK, where his family started farming the land in the 1920s. After completing his degree in economics from Yale University and then playing some pro hockey, Mr. Turner spent some time working in finance before starting FarmLead.com, a risk-free, transparent online and now mobile grain marketplace (app available for iOS & Android). His weekly column is a summary of his free, daily market note, the FarmLead Breakfast Brief. He can be reached via email (b.turner@farmlead.com) or phone (1-855-332-7653).