In 2015 Ponoka home sales transactions dipped by 29 per cent compared to 2014 but a further look back at 2013 shows similar figures.
Dale Russell, broker for Re/Max Real Estate Central Alberta, said in an interview that while 2015 transactions are down compared to 2014, the full picture is not as bleak if one researches further. A brief look at transactions shows that 2015 had 99, 2014 had 139 but 2013 was similar to last year with 109 transactions.
“2014 was an exceptional year in almost every market in central Alberta,” said Russell.
With that strong year, 2015 was poised to have fewer sales transactions. “When you compare 2014, it’s almost like comparing it to 2007. That was the year with the peak activity.”
The Calgary market may be the one area that was hit the worst in 2015 being down about 26 per cent, offered Russell. He did clarify that 2014 was a good year also for the city’s property sales. He advises anyone considering the numbers to look at several years’ worth of data to have a better picture.
As for the start of 2016, Russell said January and February are historically slow times of the year and despite forecasters suggesting there is virtually no business to be had, his office has had several sales.
He presided over several offers on properties in town and realtors have done more business this month than for the same time period in 2014. Not discounting the struggles faced in the economy, Russell says he has seen several ups and downs in the market over the years and he is confident it will rise again.
Considering the future and what 2016 looks like, Russell’s focus is going to be on the supply and demand of homes for sale. “Our supply in most markets is up slightly,” said Russell.
He’s not worried, for now. With the exception of Blackfalds, Russell feels most communities are in a good position. He did add that the oversupply in Blackfalds is partly due to having little inventory in Lacombe.
“If that trend continues where supply starts to balloon, that’s going to put a strong downward pressure on price,” he explained.
“Right now our inventories across central Alberta are what I consider to be normal,” he added.
Possible reasons to see the inventories go up is if people lose their houses or cannot pay for their mortgages. Another reason would be excess builder activity. Add these up and an oversupply will push down sale prices.
What will balance things out is when the price of a barrel of oil rises. In his research, Russell says there is a direct correlation with home sales and oil prices. With high oil prices comes high end home buyers.
Russell suggests higher priced homes will take longer to sell in this market.
“What I’m predicting is either a slight reduction in transactions or flat,” he explained.